СThe other dependence of the Russian economy from oil and prices for it is an indisputable fact. But opinions about how exactly the fuel market affects all other processes, they will differ much. Among the broad masses there is an opinion that gasoline in the oil-producing country should be very cheap or free of charge. Some economists, relying on the examples of Norway and the United States, are waiting for the prices of Russian quotations in Russian refueling. From the actual position of things are far from both positions. For almost 30 years, who have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, proved that fuel in Russia can only go out - the question is only as quickly. There are several reasons at once, from the ruble rate to the new budget rule, designed to smooth the consequences of large-scale tax reform. Doomed on growth - in the material "Renta.ru".
At the end of June, prices for gasoline AI-95, better quality compared to the most popular AI-92, reached a historic maximum. At the St. Petersburg International Fuel Exchange (SPBMTS), a ton of 95th cost 58.1 thousand rubles. Economists hurried to explain what is happening the consequences of coronavirus: after the cancellation of most restrictions, consumption and demand has been restored faster than production on oil refineries - hence the temporary deficit. In fact, the problem has a deeper root and stretches from the 1990s, the market, providing freely installed currency courses came to replace the Soviet planning economy.
To understand why gasoline in Russia the last 30 years is becoming more expensive without regard to oil prices and is almost never cheaper after them, it is necessary to disassemble the processes of pricing on oil and petroleum products (diesel, fuel, gas oil, kerosene and other types of fuel). Single oil users - refinery. Raw materials they buy in three ways: through long-term agreements with mining companies; on the stock exchange, where futures contracts are traded (with a fixed price and delivery date in the future); On special hubs (trading platforms), where the term between the transaction and delivery is reduced to two working days. Prices for long-term contracts are registered in advance for years, in other cases are determined by the volume of supply and demand. For example, in recent months, against the background of the closure of entire industries, the need for most countries in petroleum products has been radically decreased and only now begins to recover to the former levels, because of what futures quotes. In long-term agreements, this has not yet affected, but may affect the future.
Intermediaries are professional traders delivering oil from the seller to the buyer. Plants also help to sell recycled fuel - gas stations, industrial enterprises serving airports to companies. Traders who combine all trading methods and often sparkled goods directly from the manufacturer, benefit from the cost of contracts with different terms of execution: more remote futures in a normal situation are more expensive. But this procedure is valid only in the international market - everything is all strongly dependent on whether the country is an exporter or purchases resources abroad.
Only for their own
When importing, everything is simple: the plant buys oil on global conditions, produces gasoline from it and resells in its own country. The cost of transportation and processing, the desired profit is added to the procurement value, and the final price for the buyer is formed - the gas station network. You can buy abroad and ready gasoline, the price will be similar, since it will include the same components. This principle is called imported parity.
But for the refinery from the mining country, the order is already different: the purchase of oil has to have "their own", and the price is obtained by subtracting from international quotations of the same transport and other related costs. In Russia, the export duty is further subtracted, which the state charges from sellers for each ton of oil sent abroad, but excise is added, not charged from exported goods. This is an export parity: from the basic world price is removed (and not added, as when imported) excess.
In front of Russian oil workers there is a choice: send the produced products to export or sell in their native country. Companies proceed from the fact that the benefit in both cases should be equal (that is, parity). Since when selling oil in the domestic market, it is not necessary to spend money on delivery (usually in the port of the Netherlands Rotterdam) and export duties, sellers are ready to make a discount - even the added excise taxes will not outweigh it. The Russian plant raw materials get cheaper than European. But after processing, they face the same dilemma: send gasoline abroad or sell at the country cheaper - when exporting petroleum products, the duty is also paid.
Usually the decision is made on the basis of current market realities. The volumes of oil and petroleum products that are not sold out by long-term contracts are exported if the global price minus all costs (it is called netbekk) above domesticated. This leads to a decrease in supply within the country (and possible deficiency), as a result, the internal prices are growing. When selling home is more profitable, oil workers and processors refuse exports and provoke an excess supply, the cost falls. Thus, the cost of oil and gasoline in Russia depends on the international on which all interested parties are focused.
Both parities themselves - and export, and imported - imply that prices for end users may vary depending on external conditions, and in any direction. This happens in Europe and the United States, which are considered one of the largest exporters of oil and petroleum products, but due to the imperfection of the transport system are forced to buy significant volumes abroad. American President Donald Trump Two years ago, called the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Ibn Salman and demanded to increase production, so that in anticipation of elections to Congress to attract undefined voters in cheap gasoline.
There are many distortions in Russia. The main is associated with too much dependence of the economy from oil and gas income. She was especially noticeable after the collapse of the USSR and the bankruptcy of many industries, which could not have concerned competition with cheaper and high-quality imported products. It still accounts for 62 percent of all goods supplied abroad (according to the results of 2019, services were not taken into account).
In 2018, which Rosstat took over the basic, mining and processing of minerals (not only oil and gas, but also coal, peat, ores and other) brought a Russian economy 34.3 percent of the total value (the sum of all added value forms GDP) . The machining production, which includes almost all other industries, except electrical and hydropower, accounted for 53.2 percent.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the federal budget oil and gas income in 2019 amounted to 7.9 trillion rubles, or 39.2 percent of all income. This includes a mineral extraction tax (NDPI), export duties for oil, petroleum products and gas, as well as recently implemented tax on added income (NDD) and excise tax on oil raw materials. The income tax and VAT company income tax is not taken into account in statistics, and some economists consider this approach incorrect. According to their version, the oil and gas sector last year brought the country 10.5 trillion rubles, or 52.2 percent of all budget revenues.
This dependence usually leads to the "Dutch disease". The definition was given in the 1970s - after a large gas field was opened in the Dutch Groningen. The country quickly got used to earning easy money, but the influx for the local currency market of "extra" dollars (for which hydrocarbons traditionally are traditionally sold) led to the excessive strengthening of Gulden's turnover. The demand for it was created by gas exporters who needed national currency for paying wages, taxes, investing in the expansion of production.
As a result, exporters from other, more technological industries suffered: their products in terms of dollars cost more than could with weak Gulden, which pushed buyers and reduced revenue. Production was experiencing a decline and closed, since imported goods to the country often it was often more profitable. The culprit of the "Dutch Disease" most often becomes precisely the resource-producing companies. In Russia, such an effect is called "oil needle".
The domestic economy feels extra risks: the ruble exchange rate is not just strengthened after the growth of oil and gas exports, but also fluctuates depending on the movement of world prices for hydrocarbons, especially for oil. In most financially stable countries, there is one main way to manage a national currency rate - change the key bet on the market. What it is lower, the less attractive local assets for external investors, which means less demand for currency. For Russia, oil prices serve as an additional and very significant factor for which the authorities are also limited. Excessive revenue of exporters sold in the domestic market strengthens the ruble, its absence - weakens it.
Oscillations are fraught with uncertainty for anyone who is not associated with oil and gas. For example, sellers of imported electronics, currency prices are usually increasing within inflation, additional unforeseen expenses are carried with each fall of the ruble exchange rate. Paradoxically, but the oilmen almost do not notice the difference. For them, the ruble landmark is Neshekk (world price less than export duty and logistics costs) - always remains stable. The higher he in dollars, the "stronger" ruble, and vice versa. Roughly speaking, the final cost for Russian refinery at a price of $ 50 per barrel and a course of 60 rubles per dollar will be the same as at 100 dollars per barrel, but the course is 30 rubles per dollar. The same happens with a gasoline net, which the plants are accepted for the base when trades on Russian stock exchanges. The largest playground is the St. Petersburg International Fuel Exchange.
As a consequence, prices produced by gasoline plants for many years remained predictable: regardless of the external conjuncture, they grew slightly - the magnitude of inflation and regularly enhancing excise taxes. This indirect tax, like VAT, is included in the cost of the goods and is paid by the end user. In the price of Russian gasoline excise taxes take from 18 to 30 percent, and all taxes in the aggregate - up to 65 percent. The only exception happened in the crisis of 2009, when all over the world, including Russia, as well as the production and demand for fuel fell. Mining companies and refineries were forced to shortly reduce prices for their products.
Five years later, the strongest collapse occurred on the world market. During 2014, Brent futures fell 45 percent (from about $ 100 to $ 55 per barrel), and in 2014-2016, with a total of 70 percent. The reason was called a sharp revival in the US shale market - it was at him about half of the global growth of production, although before his share did not exceed six percent. In the usual situation, the domestic prices for gasoline in Russia would remain almost unchanged: "weakened" the ruble would save non-bank for miners at the same level.
But the fall was too strong. Foreign investors who are accustomed to see in the oil and gas sector the basis of the Russian economy were frightened for its further prospects and began to massively sell assets, getting rid of the liberated unnecessary rubles. The situation was additionally heated by speculators, hurried to win in more reliable assets, and some companies lost due to the newly introduced sanctions of access to overseas capital. They urgently occupied rubles and bought currency on them in the domestic market.
As a result, for the year, the Russian currency lost 56 percent of the cost, and the absolute anti-robe was broken in "Black Tuesday" on December 16: the dollar was trading for 80 rubles, the euro - for 100. The fall of the ruble exchange rate turned out to be stronger compared with oil prices. The balance was broken, and by the end of 2014, ruble netback, contrary to previously working rules, grew by pulling the cost of gasoline. For the year it increased by 8-11 percent.
According to the rules
The next two years, the price remained stable again, until in February 2017 in Russia, the budget rule has earned. Attempts to launch him were taken before, but turned out to be unsuccessful. The rule prescribes that all oil and gas revenues obtained over the level that would ensure the price of oil of the Russian urals bark of $ 42.6 per barrel, do not directly go to the budget and cannot spend money on current needs. They are sent to the National Welfare Fund (FNB) - the only Sovereign Fund remaining in Russia, in which the state saves funds, investing them in reliable low-income assets. When oil falls below the base marker, the assets of the Fund are sold to maintain a ruble rate affected by the lack of export revenue.
Foreign government bonds nominated in dollars, euro, yuan and other currencies are kept in FNB. The funds entering it are pre-exchanged on them, thereby weakening the ruble. It turns out that part of the currency revenue, which has just been sold for the payment of taxes and duties, is started in the opposite way. In the medium term, the ruble exchange rate remains at approximately the same low level, and ruble non-oil on oil and gasoline is focused only on world prices and follows them. Exceptions are possible on a short distance in the case of too sharp up shocks like Martam price collapse after the discharge of OPEC +, since the Central Bank conducts the post-factum operations on the results of each month. The authorities said a lot that the ruble rate was finally "taken away" from oil prices.
However, the excise taxes intervened here, the size of which the government annually changes - sometimes reduces, but more often increases. Typically, growth does not exceed the level of inflation, but from January 2018, it was 10.7 percent at once (with an annual inflation of about four percent) - up to 11.2 thousand rubles per ton of gasoline class "Euro-5" and 11.2 thousand rubles for Ton of diesel fuel. The authorities explained this decision to the desire to send the assembled funds for the construction of two important highways at once: Kaliningrad "Primorsky Ring" and the Crimean Tavrida.
Even the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) opposed such a sharp increase in excise taxes, fearing the growth of retail prices. In addition, in April 2018, the United States introduced regular sanctions - this time in relation to Russian businessmen, closely related, in their opinion, with the Kremlin. New restrictions scared investors who were afraid to deal with the largest Russian companies, as it threatened the ban to work in America. The ruble exchange rate dropped that only increased the effect of the purchase currency for the FNB on a budget rule. Nethekack is stronger than expected, following him - and retail prices for gasoline. From mid-March to July AI-92 went up by nine percent; AI-95 - by 8.5; Diesel - by 6.4. And such growth in the established international conditions was still restrained, because ruble netback during the same time increased by almost 25 percent. Increase prices even stronger refinery and gas stations prevented limited customer opportunities.
In the burning hut
The government rushed to correct the situation manually and agreed with the largest producers about the freezing of prices. Potential intruders threatened to raise the export duty on gasoline from 30 to 90 percent of the value of the duty on crude oil (which would lead to a sharp decrease in gasoline netabe). It was especially difficult for the owners of the gas station in the fall of 2018, when global oil quotes took off due to falling production in Venezuela and Iran (the cost of the barrel of the North European brand Brent reached 86 dollars), and raising prices at refueling was still impossible. Even an emergency decline in excise taxes - by 3.7 thousand rubles per ton of gasoline - did not strongly straighte the position of independent (from large holdings) networks.
Extend the frost agreed at the beginning of 2019. Under the conditions of the new agreement, gasoline prices could only increase by the amount of inflation, and at the beginning of the year - also on the size of increasing VAT, which increased from 18 to 20 percent. But the main event in the industry was the completion of the tax maneuver, calculated until 2024. It provides for a gradual decrease in export duties with simultaneous increase in NPPI. The latter is much more attractive for the state, because they are subject to oil produced in Russia, and not just exported.
Up to 65 percent
The cost of Russian gasoline
accounted for taxes and fees
But the decline in duties means an increase in netbuck, which means it opens up new opportunities for the growth of domestic prices. The lower duty, the more profitable to sell fuel abroad, which leads to a reduction in the proposal in the homeland. In addition, oil refining plants are gradually deprived of the so-called budget subsidy in the form of the difference between export duties for crude oil and oil products. For example, in 2017 (the last before developing the tax maneuver), Russian refinery was saved by 1.4 trillion rubles, and lost only 782 billion only due to duties. In the absence of such support, the profitability of many of them could decrease to critical values.
Want it better
As a solution of the problem, a special reverse excise mechanism was developed. The tax code has a new crushing product - oil raw materials under which all the oil purchased by the plant for processing on the home market is understood. If the oil company complies with the standard for the number of such oil (as a percentage of all extracted), additional excise tax is charged. However, it is not necessary to pay it, in contrast to all others, it is not necessary - it is counted in the form of deduction and reduces the total amount of taxes during the reporting period. Excise was designed primarily for vertically integrated oil companies (Wink) - large holdings, which include extractive divisions, and refinery, and their own networks of refueling, but also apply to independent refineries.
The conditions for its preparation are simple: it is necessary to either produce high-quality gasoline according to the Euro-5 standard in a share of at least 10 percent of all products, or to upgrade at least 60 billion rubles for several years. The main component of the return excise is the so-called damping allowance, or simply damper. For its size, it is usually far superior to the excise itself. It is calculated as the difference between ruble netbach on gasoline and the conditional domestic price, which the government establishes for a year ahead, focusing on last year's market importance. If Neshe net is higher, most of the difference (68 percent for normal gasoline and 65 - for diesel) are compensated by the state through the damper - in fact the refinery reduces taxes on this amount.
The authorities hoped that gasoline manufacturers, having received compensation, would not send products to export or raise prices within the country. However, this measure has obvious disadvantages. The main thing is that the damper may be negative - in the case when NesBack is lower than the conditional price. Then 68 percent of the difference will have to pay the NPZ themselves in the form of an additional tax (the deduction is simply disappeared), and they will not be incentive to restrain the prices in the domestic market. Moreover, the law provides that the damper will cease to be accrued if the current domestic prices are 10 percent and more exceed the conditional. Sellers are beneficial to keep quotes at such a level to avoid a negative damper. If he is positive, it makes sense to establish the price as close as possible to the plank "Conditional cost plus 10 percent".
But that's not all. The conditional price with which the export alternative is compared, many are perceived as a non-valid guide. It does not respond to current market changes and all year remains on the same level, and in the following simply indexed five percent. If we assume that in the future, world prices will decrease, the likelihood of a negative damper will only grow. NPZ, and next and retailers of gasoline, there is no reason to reduce the rates.
In addition, damping surcharges to the opposite excise taxis of different types of fuel - ordinary gasoline and diesel - are taken into account together, which often leads to overestimation of quotations, even when this can be avoided. For example, a negative damper on gasoline overlaps a positive to diesel, taxes are detached, and it is forced to shift them on buyers.
Independent gas stations offer their ways out of the situation. Among them is the establishment of the lower plank relative to the conditional price (by analogy with the top), behind which the damper will be reset. According to the authors, such a measure will stimulate manufacturers to lower the price below the bar, but in fact the argument looks controversial. In 2020, the conventional price is 53.6 thousand rubles per ton of gasoline. Even if Neshekack is at least 50,409 rubles (or higher), paying to the budget of the negative damper without increasing the wholesale price of gasoline will be more profitable for refinery than voluntary decline to the level of conditional price minus 10 percent. At the beginning of 2020, NesBack for gasoline was at the level of 53,773 rubles.
In recent months, it has decreased significantly - due to falling demand for fuel in a pandemic. While vertically integrated oil companies and independent refineries regularly pay a negative damper state, apparently, fearing, penalties or new restrictions. Only for March in the budget received 10.5 billion rubles. But theoretically, nothing prevents prices to raise prices above 58,960 rubles per ton (conditional price plus 10 percent) to reset the negative damper. The current quotes at the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange do not reach this value, stopping at 58,174 rubles.
A truly effective step would be the abolition of negative dampers. Then the price acceptable for refinery could be descended below the conditional mark - with the external conjuncture. But the authorities hardly go to such a step, because they need to reimburse the budget revenues falling out due to compensation to the factories (in the form of a positive damper), and at the same time due to fallen oil prices. It is also worth removing the ban on the import of gasoline from abroad, temporarily introduced by the government to eliminate the competition to domestic processing enterprises.
Work on bugs
Globally, in order for healthy pricing in the Russian fuel market, the possibility of reducing quotes is needed, deeper changes are needed. The domestic economy needs to reduce too much dependence on the export of raw materials. Then the changes in world prices will not affect the ruble exchange rate, and therefore Neshekk will become floating (and even the budget rule is not able to make adjustments). Strengthening the international role of the Russian currency will serve as the same purpose - provided that at least some part of the supply abroad will be paid ruble.
Some countries, mainly with an authoritarian rule, solve the problem otherwise. They are paid by oil workers and processors of subsidies for reducing prices for the population. The dimensions of such benefits are much higher than Russian damping surcharges. So, in Venezuela liter of gasoline costs 2.5 cent, in Saudi Arabia until recently - 24 cents (until the authorities initiated an increase of 80 percent), in Kuwait - 34 cents. President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov Two years ago ordered rates of prices 1.5 times - up to 42 cents per liter.
However, low prices are compensated, as a rule, in two ways: increasing taxes or the transfer of the entire oil industry for complete state control. Often to afford too low rates at refueling can producing countries with a small population. So they implement the concept of oil rent, sharing with residents of income from exports. In a full-fledged market economy, free or too cheap resources are impossible - after all, each company must pursue commercial interest.
Norway can serve as a feed example. The state with a population of five million people has a developed and diversified economy: in addition to oil and gas, exports weapons, agricultural products, earns tourism. Price fluctuations for resources do not lead to sharp drops of the national currency rate - crowns. In addition, oil and gas budget revenues do not depend on taxes. They enter the treasury directly as a fee for the use of deposits and pipelines belonging to the state, which avoids constant changes in the tax policies of the authorities and the introduction of an analogue of the Russian damper.
Since the 1990s, the famous Norwegian Pension Fund is functioning, the largest sovereign foundation in the world with assets with a total value above the trillion dollars. In it, as in the Russian FNB, the extensions from the sale of hydrocarbons are accumulated, but they cannot be used for current needs and are intended for future generations of Norwegians. Prices for local gas stations fluctuate depending on the current conjuncture. Such a model can become a guide for Russia. Unlike ever-changing Russian conditions, it proves its effectiveness for years.
The vibrations of the value of gasoline on the wholesale fuel market forced the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to promise government control and coercive prices. He reported that the increase in the cost of fuel in 2021 will not exceed the level of inflation. However, on New Year's holidays, the gas stations have already rewrote the price tags. We found out why prices still rose and whether the fluctuations of the wholesale commodity market could reflect on the traits of ordinary drivers.
Gasoline went up in January
Fuel excise rates on gasoline, diesel and motor oils from January 1, 2021 planned by 4%. Relevant amendments were adopted in the Tax Code. It was this increasing excise tax that affected the retail price of gasoline in the first days of January. According to the head of the working group of the ONF "Protection of the rights of motorists" by Peter Shkumatov, the retail market there is an honest price increase.
"Gasoline rose by 60-80 kopecks in retail, it is about 1.5% growth. But in fact, if you look at the price structure, these 60 kopecks are just the same excise. Increased duty by 4% does not mean the same increase in the price of fuel, the share of excise in the cost of fuel just corresponds to this one and a half percent. And this rise in price was planned and should not be surprised at all. Prices rose absolutely honestly, "says Skumatov.
As for wholesale price fluctuations, it is hardly an increase in the cost of fuel companies will not affect simple consumers, experts mark. "If business will grow, then retail prices at gas stations will be rummaged. Business is not engaged in charity, all financial load will be transferred to consumers. If the motorists do not like the fact that the growth of gasoline itself, then it is necessary to understand that the refueling is done here, these are the actions of the government, "explained Schukumatov in conversation with Autonews.ru.
Photo: Alexey Bychkov / Global Look Press
According to the "Avtostat", the average annual mileage of the car in Russia is 17 thousand km, and the average fuel consumption is 10 liters per 100 kilometers. Thus, the average fuel consumption of one car for the year is 1700 liters. With the rise in the cost of a liter of gasoline by 60 kopecks in annual recalculation, the motorist will have to pay for about 1 thousand rubles more than a year earlier. According to the head of the ONF working group, drivers are unlikely to notice such a slight increase in gasoline costs.
Rise in price will be within inflation
According to the ONF, over the past year, the rise in gasoline prices in Moscow was below inflation. According to the study of the organization, which is at the disposal of Autonews.ru, prices for gasoline AI-95 in the capital increased by 1 ruble 2 kopecks (+ 2.17%), the cost of gasoline of the AI-92 series has changed even less - the rise in price in 2020 amounted to 72 kopecks or 1.69%.
The head of the Russian Fuel Union, Evgeny Arcusha, believes that motorists should not panic and read in detail in the news of the fuel market. Because from the point of view of consumer prices, there will be no serious jumps of value at gas stations. This expert reported Autonews.ru.
"Prices in 2021 will grow approximately at the level of inflation. The Deputy Prime Minister has already been told about this. All other oscillations are the problems of the internal fuel market. The imbalance of the proposals and the dispensation of wholesale and retail prices has only indirect attitude towards consumers. All that happens inside the market now can lead to a change in the structure of the market, the care of independent companies. But it is rather information for specialists of the fuel market, consumers will not notice anything. The rise in prices for gasoline in 2021 will smooth, within inflation, "explained the fuel expert.
Photo: Anton BELITSKY / Global Look Press
It is the news about increasing wholesale prices for gasoline at the beginning of the first working week of 2021 forced motorists to pay attention to the price tags of the gas station and notice there to change the numbers. But, as Arcusha explained, the prices of the wholesale market are focused on export parity, that is, the same benefit of supplying fuel to the internal or foreign market. For the growth of wholesale prices, factors are conducted as an increase in fuel excise taxes, an increase in tariffs for the transport of fuel, a decrease in export duties in accordance with the tax maneuver, as well as the growth of world oil prices and an increase in fuel demand. It is the benefit today pusings oil workers to direct more fuel or raw materials for its manufacturing for export.
To the quality of fuel still have questions
The government expects receipts from excise taxes in 2021 to be more than 0.8 trillion rubles. In favor of regional budgets for the construction of roads and overpasses, up to 75% of fees will be sent, and the next two years - more than 77%. Such a scheme for the distribution of cash fees was approved in the federal budget for 2021-2023.
Despite the planned increase in the value of fuel at refueling in January 2021, there are Russian motorists, to which pay attention besides prices for gas stations, namely, the quality of fuel. According to the verification of Rosstandart, poor-quality fuel was found on each tenth Russian refueling. Mainly, the inspections were carried out on complaints of motorists to the rebirth of fuel and the inconsistency of the octane number. But since July 2021, Rosstandard will begin to check the fuel at gas stations in the "Secret Customer" mode.
For another six months, the agency, according to the current legislation, is obliged to prevent the AZS on the conduct of inspections. But even in cases of warning, experts detect up to 10% of poor-quality raw materials. Most often, these violations find in small gas stations.
Photo: Aleksandr Schemlyaev / Global Look Press
"The Law on State Control and Supervision, which will take effect on July 1, 2021, will allow Rosstandard specialists to come without warning. Accordingly, they came, measured in quality and by the amount of fuel and revealed violations. There are not so many violations with gasoline - it is about 3% of cases. The main mass of falsification and inconsistencies with the requirements of Rosstandart reveals in the field of diesel fuel - about 10-15%, "the deputy head of the department Alexey Kuleshov explained according to the results of the last inspection.
Moreover, the Office is actively developing an interactive map in which it intends to make information about refills supplying poor-quality fuel. It will also be marked and points where you can pour good gasoline. The card promise to run this year and make accessible to applications with navigation.
Vladimir Zeguev, Ksenia Sometros
According to Alexander Novak's deputy prime minister, since the beginning of 2020, prices for diesel fuel in Russia increased only by 1.7%. At the same time, according to Rosstat estimates, gasoline in the country went up by an average of 2.3-2.7%. Hold the growth of the cost of fuel below the inflation level allowed a special compensating mechanism, consider in the government. Moreover, according to experts, additional pressure on prices had a sharp reduction in demand for petroleum products during quarantine restrictions. How can the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel can change in 2021 - in the RT material.
In 2020, the cost of fuel in Russia demonstrated only a slight increase. About this on Tuesday, December 22, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
"The prices for diesel fuel this year are in place, and the total growth since the beginning of the year amounted to only 1.7%," Novak told at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin.
Similar dynamics and prices for automotive gasoline were also shown. Thus, the cost of fuel AI-92 on average in Russia increased by 2.3% (up to 43.23 rubles per liter), and the prices for fuel AI-95 rose by 2.7% (up to 46.97 rubles per liter). This is stated in the materials of Rosstat.
It is noteworthy that the rate of appreciation of petroleum products in Russia turned out to be almost two times lower than the level of inflation. According to the latest estimates, since the beginning of the year, the total growth of consumer prices in the country amounted to 4.5%.
As Alexander Novak noted, to restrain the rise in price of gasoline and diesel engine allowed a special compensating mechanism - damper.
Recall, after a sharp rise in price of fuel in 2018, the Russian government agreed with oil companies about freezing wholesale prices. At the same time, oil workers were unprofitable to deliver a fuel to the Russian market at a fixed value. Export prices have noticeably exceeded internal, so the business was more profitably selling petroleum products only abroad. As a result, from January 1, 2019, the state began to reimburse the companies inadvertent income in the supply of fuel to the domestic market.
Thus, if the prices of fuel inside the country are lower than export, oil workers receive compensation from the budget. At higher prices in the domestic market of the company, on the contrary, is expelled to the treasury part of the profit. The damper action made it possible to slow down the rise in price of gasoline almost five times - from 9.4% in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019.
According to Alexander Novak, in the future the government will continue to ensure that the increase in fuel remained within inflation. At the same time, Vladimir Putin called to prevent "hooligans" in the fuel market.
"The industry should not suffer, should feel comfortable, but also with consumers can not be hooligan. Everything is clear there. But we are constantly in contact with the oil workers, the mechanism is debugged, so I hope that it will work on time when it takes it, "the president emphasized.
- RIA News
- © Michael Climetyev
In addition to the action of the damper, in 2020, a certain pressure on the value of petroleum products had a decrease in the demand for fuel as a result of a coronavirus pandemic. Such a point of view in a conversation with RT expressed the Executive Director of the Capital Market Market Department, Artem Tuzov.
"In April and May, the population observed self-insulation regime, and many went to remote employment. As a result, citizens did not need to make such a large number of trips. Those whose enterprises should have been used by public transport even during quarantine restrictions, and the Russians have shown their personal trips to a minimum. Therefore, manufacturers did not so seriously increase the cost of fuel so as not to scare away buyers, "explained the aces.
As RT told the head of the AMARKETS Analytical Department, Artem Deev, during the spring Lokdauna, the sale of gasoline in Russia decreased by about 40%. However, in summer, as quarantine restrictions are removed, the consumption of petroleum products in Russia began to recover.
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It is noteworthy that in June, the revival of demand for fuel led to a sharp rise in the cost of fuel on the stock exchange. Meanwhile, the situation did not lead to a noticeable change in prices at gas stations.
"In the stock exchanges, small independent companies acquire the fuel, and the largest producers sell the main volume. Therefore, it turns out that stock prices have a minor impact on the final prices for a gas station, "said Artem Deev.
It is curious that at the cost of gasoline did not affect the spring collapse of oil quotes. The presenter analyst Forex Optimum Ivan Kapustyansky explains this with the peculiarities of the pricing on the Russian market of petroleum products.
"In April, the cost of oil reference brand Brent fell to $ 15.98 for the first time since 1999 per barrel. Meanwhile, this factor did not make a reason to reduce fuel prices. In many respects, this is due to the fact that in the cost of gasoline there are a significant proportion of taxes, "the Kapustansky explained.
According to the surveyed RT experts, in 2021, the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel will remain lower inflation, which, according to the forecast of the Central Bank, will be 3.5-4%. At the same time, the influence on the market of petroleum products will continue to have a situation with a pandemic, I am sure of Artem Deev.
"If new restrictions are introduced, then as the demand for fuel falls, manufacturers will reduce and deliveries to the domestic market. If vaccination goes promptly, the demand for fuel will increase, but with such a situation, the rise in prices will already be restrained by the damper, "the analyst concluded.
Why is gasoline more expensive? The Accounts Chamber warned about the risk of fuel crisis
Fuel rises in Russia again: from the beginning of 2021, gasoline prices and diesel increased by 2-3%. The rise in gasoline prices can provoke a fuel crisis and, as a result, social tension, warns the Accounts Chamber. The Kremlin assures that the situation is under control. To restrain the prices, the authorities decided to allocate additional funds from the budget by oil workers.
Since the beginning of 2021, gasoline prices and diesel fuel in Russia increased by 3%, show the data of Yandex and Petrol Plus (collects data from 13 thousand gas stations). According to Rosstat, since the beginning of the year, prices for automotive gasoline increased by 2.2%.
Gasoline began to rise again after several months prices kept at one level.
The Ministry of Energy believes that the cause of the fuel price increase was the growth in demand due to strong frosts in early March, as well as a seasonal growth in demand.
The Accounts Chamber in his report for 2020 reported that in Russia there are risks of repeating the situation in May 2018, when the government had to make emergency measures to keep the rise in fuel prices and stop protests in the regions. On March 17, the press service of the Accounts Chamber clarified that these risks are minimal.
The deputy head of the Ministry of Energy Pavel Sorokin stated that the prerequisites for repetition of the 2018 situation are not now. The press secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov assures that the government keeps the situation under control: "The existing mechanisms are involved, and they will not allow dramatically to change the prices of fuel."
What happened in May 2018?
In the spring of 2018, the prices of fuel rose in Russia. Gasoline AI-95 from the beginning of April to the beginning of June went up by 10% to 45.8 rubles, show Yandex data. AI-92 and diesel fuel also rose by about 10% for the same period.
In May, the top of the top regions passed the protest actions against the rise in price of fuel. His indignation of high prices, one of the drivers expressed during a straight line with Vladimir Putin.
The fuel began to rise after large producers of petroleum products reduced gasoline sales at the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange more than twice.
Sales in Russia decreased, because manufacturers were more profitable to sell fuel abroad. Such a situation has developed in connection with the tax maneuver, in which the authorities decided to gradually reduce export duties and increase the tax on mining.
To restrain the rise in prices, the government decided to reduce excise taxes. Dmitry Kozak, who then held the post of Deputy Prime Minister, claimed that the government went to meet companies, but they should "temper appetites." The head of the Ministry of Energy, Alexander Novak, threatened the business in the introduction of additional export duties. As a result, the oilmen agreed to freeze prices.
Subsequently, the government has invented a special mechanism to curb fuel prices. From 2019, in Russia, inverse excise was introduced, which acted as a tax deduction and was paid to oil refinery. The volume of this deduction depended on the volume of production of petroleum products and some other factors.
Also, a part of the new mechanism was the damper ("Daisitor", "shock absorber") - the allowance for deduction, the size of which depends on the difference in export and domestic prices.
The reverse excise mechanism with damping allowance works in such a way that, with oil prices above $ 50-55 per barrel, the government pays compensation to oil workers. This compensation, on the idea of the government, should be missed in order to cover business losses from the sale of gasoline within the country during periods when it is more profitable to send fuel to export.
But the mechanism also has a reverse side: with oil prices below $ 50-55 per barrel, the return excise starts to act as usual, that is, the money must pay the oil workers to the state.
The measures taken worked: the prices from June 2018 to December 2020 increased slightly. For example, according to Yandex, AI-92 during this period a ruble rode up to 43.4 rubles, AI-95 went up by two rubles to 47.8 rubles. Prices for diesel fuel grew stronger - almost four rubles to 48 rubles.
Why are prices grow again?
A sharp rise in prices occurred in the summer of 2020. Then the Ministry of Energy explained it by the end of Lokdanun. Deputy Minister Pavel Sorokin said that the rise in prices "is a normal market reaction to the gradual restoration of the sectors of the economy after the restrictive measures for non-proliferation of coronavirus infection amid the restoration of demand and quotations in world markets." As a result, prices stabilized.
The new growth round began at the end of 2020. Increase prices began due to lack of supply of petroleum products. The manufacturers most likely reduced the volume of shipment to the domestic market, because it became more profitable to sell fuel to export, the Petromarket Research Group was noted.
By agreement with the government at such periods, the budget must provide oilmen compensation so that it is more profitable to sell fuel within the country than abroad. However, in January 2021, the opposite happened: oil workers had to pay to the budget, wrote Kommersant. The mechanism that worked before this was failed for several reasons, the main of which is the change in the market conjuncture due to the coronavirus pandemic and the imperfection of the Compensation formula (damper).
By the beginning of 2021, prices for oil and petroleum products increased significantly in foreign markets, while the ruble almost did not strengthen (the weaker ruble makes export more profitable). In addition, in the formula of the damper, the indexation of domestic fuel prices in the amount of 5% was laid, while in reality, growth in the last two years was 1.5-2%, Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft.
These factors led to exporting fuel it became more profitable than selling within the country. At the end of January, the Reuters agency wrote with reference to unnamed managers of oil companies that the processing of raw materials for domestic supplies has become unprofitable.
Oilmen requested the government to change the formula of the damper, but the authorities did not want to go to the meeting, the agency was noted.
As of March 11, the processors of the Moscow region could receive a ton of 64.3 thousand rubles in the export of fuel, while 54.67 thousand rubles were at the St. Petersburg International Exports of the quotation, written by Sberbank CIB analyst Mikhail Shebe.
As a result, the government still decided to change the formula. "We see that the [compensation] mechanism in the current macroeconomic conditions at the current course and with increasing oil prices in world markets partially demanded adjustments. This question was worked out in the government," said Alexander Novak's Ministry of Energy.
The new formula will start working on May 1. According to Aton analysts, the adjusted formula, "can ensure an increase in compensation to oil companies by about 42 billion rubles. Until the end of the year."
From May 1, a damper mechanism will be adjusted. His parameters agreed by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy. At the same time, it is from the end of the spring that the seasonal increase in demand for fuel begins. It can spur and without that considerable increase in gasoline prices, which has steadily expensive since the beginning of the year. Will the new damper help to avoid serious price increases? What should be preparing in May?
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy made a joint statement that they agreed to the damper parameters. The draft law with appropriate amendments to the Tax Code is submitted to the government. The departments decided to change the damper due to the ratio of the ruble and the growing oil prices. As a result, the volume of compensation to oil refineries will grow. Specialists of ministries believe that this will improve the economy of the oil refining sector and will contribute to the preservation of price dynamics at the gas station within the annual inflation.
—Fuel prices in Russia and their growth have long left the economic plane to socio-political. On the possible increase in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel above inflation, the fuel union warned in March. According to experts, the annual increase in prices can reach 14%. Since the beginning of the year, fuel has already risen in price by 1.5-4% depending on the brand. Given that May traditionally is the season of high demand for fuel, the increase in prices this month should be expected. Earlier, in 2020, the increase in the cost of fuel in May was not more than 0.5%. But it was associated with a pandemic and locomotion throughout the country, as well as with restriction in the movements of people between the regions, - told the independent financial expert Dmitry Chechulin.
According to him, even if the price is limited by law and regulatory acts, the market will play this situation a little later. However, the position in the fuel market is now multiplicated.
—Changing the damper mechanism is just aimed at preventing the rise in fuel prices within the country. To do this, it is necessary to support the industry, revising the old rules that require adjustments to the crisis. Because of the pandemic, the cost of energy carriers is constantly changing in the global market, affecting the Russian trading platforms. Accordingly, the change in rules will help oil workers to make the terms of delivery more flexible, - Denis Badyanov believes the analyst of the UK "Alfa-Capital".
He noted that sowing work is being conducted. At the same time, oil production is gradually increasing, limited by the decision of the OPEC + countries, which includes Russia. Because of the seasonal factor, our country was allowed to increase production at 130 thousand barrels per day in April, while the rest of the cartel countries constrained the growth of production.
According to Denis Badyanov, the Mayanovye will reduce the growth rate of the cost of fuel in the wholesale link. The price of gas station is adjusted next. Also within the country, raw material production rates increase, which will help prevent the lack of gasoline and diesel fuel to buyers during the high spring demand.
—The bill suggests that the cost of gasoline will decrease by four thousand rubles per ton from May 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022. As for retail prices, the gasoline of the AI-92 brand will be bargaining in the range of 44.8-45.3 rubles per liter, diesel fuel - 49.2-50.0 per liter depending on the region, - predicts Denis Badyanov.
Since May 1, the increase in the cost of fuel in the domestic market should stop. So considers the head of the Analytical Department of Amarkets Artyom Deev. According to him, a new damper will lead to the fact that the prices in the wholesale link will not grow with a leading pace, which means that the situation and retail stabilizes.
—For the fuel market of the Russian Federation, this means that now the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel, with a simultaneous fall in income of the population, can lead to a sharp reduction in demand. This situation will have a negative impact on the business of gas stations and manufacturers of petroleum products. Therefore, the state seeks to reduce the growth rate for negative consequences both for the industry, and for citizens did not happen, - concluded Artem Deev.
There is another factor that affects prices is inflation. The cost of gasoline will change within its limits. This is said by an employee of the Department of Economic and Financial Research CMS Institute Nikolay Pereslavsky.
According to him, the cost of fuel will depend to some extent and from world oil quotes. For this, a new damper mechanism was worked out, according to which oilmen will receive 42 billion rubles from the budget to deter price in the domestic market.
Nikolay Pereslavsky believes that it is not worth waiting for some global price increase during May. According to his calculations, it will be no more than 0.5%.
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Most experts converge in the opinion that you should not expect a special price of gasoline in 2020. The fuel is unlikely to overcome the mark of 50 rubles per liter and should not exceed the inflation rate. The main reason for such stability is the creation of a government of damper protection against sharp surgery prices.
Forecasts of government
According to the publication of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the budget takes into account inflation indicators in the amount of 3%. This is the limit for the rise in price of gasoline from January 1, 2020. Moreover, in December 2019, the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak published its own price forecast. In the article of the magazine "Energy policy", he indicated that the growth of the cost of fuel would fall behind inflation. The words of the Minister of Energy confirm the specialists of the antimonopoly service, in particular the deputy head of the FAS Anatoly Golomolyazin, using Rosstat's data for 2019:
- As of October, gasoline and wasolar rose by 2.7%. At the same time, inflation indicators were 3.7-4%.
- Diesel fuel has become more expensive than 1% only in January. In the following months, prices only decreased.
- The cost of A-92 decreased for almost six months, A-95 and A-98 - pairs of months during 2019.
Alexander Novak also recommends not paying attention to the jumps of oil prices in 2020 and worry about why gasoline has risen in price. The basis for such confidence is the damper mechanism. This measure helps to stabilize the cost due to compensation to oil companies from the state. In essence, the Government of the Russian Federation pays the lost profits if the fuel abroad is more expensive than in the domestic market: 68% for gasoline and 65% for diesel.
This measure has a reverse side. If companies are artificially overestimated prices, then superpribela is withdrawn and listed in the treasury.
Forecasts of experts
Financial specialists of various spheres offer sometimes opposite forecasts. In one, they converge - the rise in price of gasoline in 2020 will, but it is worth it to worry about it because of this. On the one hand, the Ranhigs specialists and the Gaidar Institute proposed infographics with the price forecast until 2024:
According to it, price increases is expected to up to 7%, compared with November 2019. Such a jump is associated with a new tax on associated gas. This component is dissolved in natural oil and is used to create high-octane fuel grades. However, the cost of raw materials on average is only 6.87% of gasoline prices. A new mineral extraction tax should not lead to sharp changes.
Anxiety causes a regular increase in gasoline excise taxes, which should provoke a rise in price from January 1, 2020. However, Dmitry Marinchenko, an expert of the Fitch's rating agency, argues that, taking into account the damper mechanism, the effect of innovations will be smoothed. So export duties for refineries will be reduced and for the end consumer, the rise in prices within the country will be minority - within 1%.
The main analyst of the independent fuel union of Georgy Bazhenov also adheres to the opinion that, taking into account the agreements between the government and oil companies, one should not expect any sharp jumps. This is due primarily to the social crisis caused by an unstable situation in the fuel market within the Russian Federation in 2018. After the negative reaction of the population on a sharp increase in prices, the government is trying by any methods to smooth the situation.
That is why after the rise in price from December 2019 and January 2020, it is possible to hope for stabilization of gasoline rates and their growth in inflation. As for the inflationary indicators themselves, experts attribute their opinion, then the changes are not foreseen. According to the evaluation of the Independent Agency Agency, the maximum possible increase in prices will not exceed 4.75% indicators.
Penalty for nothing
In addition to directly controlling rates for gasoline, the government has prepared a bill that must further improve the quality of life of drivers. Minpromtorg offered from January 1, 2020 to tighten the penalty for noting fuel to gas stations. But the initiative was rejected in connection with the development of a new Administrative Code.
According to the data from the inspections, each 5 fuel station is noting up to 15% of gasoline to customers.
In 2020, the penalty is according to Part 1 of Art. 19.19 COAP 50-100 thousand rubles and cannot be used as a restraining measure. If the bill is approved, then in 2021 the amount of financial punishment will increase to 1% of last year's profits, at least 500 thousand rubles. With repeated violations, it will already be 3% and 2 million rubles.
However, expert Georgy Bazhenov believes that in addition to positive influence, this law will also become the basis for new corruption schemes. Therefore, the owners of small gas stations should be careful, considering that errors are possible during checks. As a result, with the introduction of the law, part of the refueling will simply stop exist.
As far as gasoline will rise in price in 2020: video
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Putin did not speak about the retailers, but about wholesale prices for gasoline AI-92, follows from the comment of the FAS received in RBC. Retail prices for this gasoline grade from the beginning of 2019 to March 2020 increased by only 2.2%, to 42.83 rubles. per liter, follows from the price agency Reuters. The representative of the Ministry of Energy did not respond to the RBC request.
The jump of wholesale prices for gasoline - the investigation of price regulation by the state, said experts surveyed by RBC.
Why fuel rose
Prices for AI-92 in the wholesale market increased by 10.4% from January 2019 to January 2020 due to the low base effect, explains Reuters analyst Maxim Nazarov. This is confirmed by the President of the Russian Fuel Union Evgeny Arkusha.
In the spring of 2018, gasoline prices rose sharply, and the government urgently accepted a number of measures to stabilize the situation. One of them is an agreement with oil companies, within the framework of which companies from November 1, 2018 increased the supply to the domestic market by 3% to the previous year, and also frozen prices in the shallow wholesale. The agreements were operated until July 1, 2019, and the obligation to increase deliveries was canceled at the end of March 2019.
As a result, from November 2018 to April 2019, the market was oversaturated with gasoline, says Nazarov. Wholesale prices then fell by 20%, to 29.8 rubles. per liter, follows from the Reuters. The oil refining received losses and the production of gasoline was simply unprofitable, the head of Gazprom Neft, the head of Gazprom Neft, was compiled in the spring of 2019 Alexander Dyukov.
After the failure of the winter of 2019, the wholesale prices for January 2020 really rose by 10.4%, up to 34.25 rubles. per liter. If we compare the prices of March 2019 by March 2020, the growth is even more - 17%, follows from the Reuters data.
How do retail prices for gasoline behave
From January 1, 2020 to March 18, 2020, retail prices for gasoline brands AI-92 and AI-95 increased only by 0.2%, winter diesel fuel - 0.19% with inflation 0.9%, says the FAS representative.
Usually, the growth of wholesale prices with almost frozen retailers (the Russian government has set up a tax system so that retail prices are increasing not higher than inflation) means a decline in the margin of gas stations. But, according to Arkushi, the current marginality of refueling business is generally acceptable. The exact figures, according to him, depend on the region, for example, in the Far East and in the Primorye of the margin of gas stations, as before, negative.
In order for the gasoline sale business to be unprofitable, the gas station holders need to ensure that the difference between the wholesale and retail prices for fuel in terms of the liter was 6-8 rubles. And more depending on the region, logistics from a particular operator, the volume of implementation, says Nazarov. This allows you to cover all costs and work at least in zero, it adds. According to Reuters, in the first three months of 2020, this difference amounted to 8.6 rubles on average in Russia. per liter.
While the situation is stable, but the main fears are related to the fact that oilmen can reduce production in case of falling the profitability of oil refining, Arcusha says. The Russian tax system is built in such a way that the RPZ margin falls due to the decline in oil prices: at $ 35 pricing. Barrel plants in 2020, 0.5 trillion rubles are missing, assessing the chief economist Vygon Consulting Sergei Ezhov. March 18 Brent oil fell to $ 25 for the first time since 2003.
Another risk for fuel business is to reduce the demand for fuel due to the introduction of restrictive measures against the background of the proliferation of coronavirus, says Arcush. True, so far, such measures, due to which people began to use less vehicles, touched only Moscow, he adds.